MLB Baseball

WSH vs PHI Prediction

August 7, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

WSH vs PHI prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.8 - WSH 3.5. PHI is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.

PHI
3.8
Projected Score
VS O/U 9.0
WSH
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
54.5%
45.5%
PHIWSH
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,107 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

WSH
245
PHI
246

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Miles Mikolas R
WSH
FF25% · 93
SI24% · 93
SL22% · 88
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%93 mph12% whiff
SI24%93 mph7% whiff
SL22%88 mph16% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI43% · 95
CH38% · 87
SL19% · 86
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH38%87 mph43% whiff
SL19%86 mph42% whiff

Weather Impact

Citizens Bank Park
86°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.038
thin air, 7mph out

Bullpen Comparison

WSH
5.46ERA
5.13FIP
8.83K/9
4.59BB/9
1.53WHIP
PHI
4.40ERA
3.81FIP
10.49K/9
3.56BB/9
1.35WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

WSH F5
1.7 runs
35.5% win
PHI F5
2.1 runs
45.2% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Andrew Painter SPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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