CWS vs BOS prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.5 - CWS 3.4. BOS is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
BOS
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCWS
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
BOS
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%95 mph24% whiff
SL26%86 mph24% whiff
SI16%96 mph10% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph12% whiff
FF22%92 mph15% whiff
FC21%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.037
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.91ERA
4.18FIP
9.17K/9
4.51BB/9
1.35WHIP
BOS
3.41ERA
3.63FIP
9.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.7 runs
36.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
43.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.