FINAL: PHI 1 — MIL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.0 - MIL 4.8 (MIL at 58.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
PHI
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIMIL
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.0 — MIL 4.8
Actual
PHI 1 — MIL 4
Pick Results
MIL MLmlWIN+0.36u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph17% whiff
CH35%83 mph35% whiff
FC16%88 mph17% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph11% whiff
SI18%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
63°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.939 Total: 0.963
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.00ERA
3.36FIP
9.50K/9
3.50BB/9
1.18WHIP
PHI
4.43ERA
3.95FIP
10.09K/9
3.50BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+14.4% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-8.1% EV
+116
NRFI NRFI
-7.4% EV
-128
ML HOME
-6.8% EV
+112
NRFI YRFI
-4.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-3.9% EV
-156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.8 runs
49.1% win
PHI F5
2.2 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Logan Henderson | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL29.3%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI28.3%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Logan Henderson | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Henderson
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL6 injured
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Logan Henderson (2.71 ERA, B+ ace-tier) is a clear step above Aaron Nola (4.85 ERA, B- tier) — a legitimate 2.14 ERA gap worth roughly 15%+ win probability, giving MIL road value the market hasn't fully priced (56.6% model vs 54.9% implied).
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Henderson 2.71 ERA (K rate 30.7%, command grade A-) vs Nola 4.85 ERA (K rate 23.5%) — genuine ace-vs-good-not-great gap
- AWAY ML edge 3.0% (56.6% model vs 54.9% market) clears the 3.0pp minimum threshold
- OVER 7.0 shows 14.5% edge (59.3% model) — supportive signal but treat with high-edge caution
- Cold weather (63.2F, 12.4mph in) tempers the OVER case somewhat but doesn't erase the SP mismatch
Risk Factors
- Away underdog structural weakness (a supportive track record combo) partially offsets the pitching edge — size moderately, not maximally
- OVER edge of 14.5% falls in the historically weaker high-edge tier — treat as secondary, not primary, angle
- PHI riding momentum (Wheeler dominant yesterday) provides a small behavioral counter-argument
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 58.9%
-3.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-3.9 pts
Total
7.0
+14.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.