MIN vs SF prediction for September 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.9 - MIN 4.4. MIN is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
SF
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFMIN
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.9 — MIN 4.4
Actual
SF 2 — MIN 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%88 mph28% whiff
FF27%96 mph13% whiff
CU18%83 mph35% whiff
Cesar Perdomo L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph19% whiff
CH29%87 mph20% whiff
SL25%86 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
73°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.43ERA
4.10FIP
9.32K/9
4.15BB/9
1.41WHIP
SF
4.58ERA
4.73FIP
6.97K/9
4.36BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.4 runs
43.8% win
SF F5
2.3 runs
40.9% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LF10-DAY-IL
Kaelen Culpepper SS10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Osleivis Basabe 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Blade Tidwell RP15-DAY-IL
Landen Roupp SPOUT
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Bryce Eldridge DH7-DAY IL
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.