FINAL: NYY 9 — TB 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 4.4 - TB 4.4 (NYY at 50.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
NYY
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB L4NYY W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.4 — TB 4.4
Actual
NYY 9 — TB 2
Pick Results
TB MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Englert R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH27%86 mph28% whiff
SI19%92 mph6% whiff
FF17%93 mph26% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%97 mph20% whiff
SL19%90 mph25% whiff
KC14%83 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
62°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.954 Total: 0.973
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.35ERA
3.75FIP
9.03K/9
2.63BB/9
1.11WHIP
NYY
3.29ERA
4.12FIP
8.27K/9
3.59BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 6.5
+14.6% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
-13.4% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-9.5% EV
-149
F5 OVER 3.5
+9.4% EV
-104
ML HOME
-5.5% EV
-130
NRFI YRFI
+3.7% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
40.2% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
44.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
48.8%
YRFI
51.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Mason Englert | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB27.6%
ISO: 0.169 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mason Englert
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SPDAY-TO-DAY
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OVER 6.5 shows a 13.2% edge driven by Yankee Stadium's +10% HR park factor, but Judge's IL absence and Cole's high-K profile both work against ceiling outcomes, so this is treated as a moderate lean rather than a full bet.
Key Factors
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 (+10% HR) — market total of 6.5 is short historically for this venue
- Model total 8.69 vs market 6.5 (+2.19 gap) is a large but suspiciously large disparity
- Cole's 25% K rate generates more outs/fewer base-runners, which can suppress scoring somewhat despite park factor
- OVER edge of 13.2% sits in the historically weaker high-edge bucket
Risk Factors
- Aaron Judge (RF) on 10-day IL, calf — market total likely already discounted for his absence, meaning model may be overstating the gap
- TB bullpen elite (3.35 ERA, 2.33 closer) can suppress late-inning scoring
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.7%
-2.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.9 pts
Total
6.5
+14.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.