CLE vs BOS prediction for September 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.0 - CLE 3.9. BOS is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCLE
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.0 — CLE 3.9
Actual
BOS 1 — CLE 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph16% whiff
FF16%92 mph16% whiff
ST14%80 mph27% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI22%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
FC19%88 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
57°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.928 Total: 0.957
13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.36ERA
3.70FIP
10.17K/9
3.77BB/9
1.22WHIP
BOS
3.04ERA
3.31FIP
9.78K/9
3.13BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.1 runs
38.4% win
BOS F5
2.3 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.6%
YRFI
41.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Aroldis Chapman RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.