FINAL: SF 2 — MIL 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 3.1 - MIL 3.1 (SF at 51.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
SF
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,064 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.1 — MIL 3.1
Actual
SF 2 — MIL 8
Pick Results
SF F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Drohan L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%95 mph27% whiff
SI21%95 mph10% whiff
SL20%86 mph36% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph10% whiff
CH26%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
67°F19 mph wind
HR: 1.105 Total: 1.061
18mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.0% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-26.0% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.7% EV
+118
F5_ML AWAY
-15.5% EV
-139
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.7% EV
-123
ML AWAY
-14.0% EV
-154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.5 runs
35.8% win
SF F5
1.8 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
23%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Drohan
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
UNDER 7.5 edge 14.7% (model 63.4% under prob vs market ~48% implied). Logan Webb (C+ grade, 7.8 K/9, weak stuff C, strong command B) vs Shane Drohan (B grade, 9.4 K/9, stuff B-, command B). Drohan is SUPERIOR pitcher (0.551 grade vs 0.404). But SF marine layer (cool, marine wind) + Oracle Park -12% suppress park factor + weather wind 18.8mph OUT (1.105 HR mult but 1.061 run mult suggests wind VARIABLE = blows out for HRs but suppresses line drives) = complexity. Model projects 6.2 total vs 7.5 market. This is the SF/Oracle unique weather edge.
Key Factors
- Oracle Park -12% park suppress factor + marine layer + wind 18.8mph OUT (complex) = strong UNDER environment. Model 6.2 total vs market 7.5 = 1.3pt edge.
- PITCHER ADVANTAGE (AWAY): Drohan (B grade, 9.4 K/9, stuff B-) outmatches Webb (C+ grade, 7.8 K/9, weak C). MIL has pitcher edge but SF marine layer suppresses scoring regardless.
- UNDER 7.5 edge 14.7% (model 63.4%) — moderate edge historically mixed. F5 UNDER 3.5 edge 8.5% (model 53.7%) adds confidence.
- Weather: 66.9F (cool), 68% humidity, 18.8mph out wind (1.105 HR mult but wind is variable — can suppress or inflate depending on fly ball direction). Oracle park is famously cold/suppressive despite the wind multiplier.
Risk Factors
- historical support ALERT: 14.7% edge is historically mixed. Recent 15%+ edge picks are 0-3. This is borderline high-edge trap.
- Wind direction (288 degrees = W-NW) affects fly balls to CF/LF, not uniformly. Simulation's 1.061 run mult may not capture Oracle's true suppressive nature.
- Drohan's B grade stuff is strong, but Webb's command (B, 0.581) is comparable. Pitcher edge is real but modest.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.5%
-32.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.0 pts
Total
7.5
+14.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.