NYY vs SD prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.6 - NYY 3.5. SD is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
SD
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDNYY
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
245
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.6 — NYY 3.5
Actual
SD 1 — NYY 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph21% whiff
SL25%86 mph33% whiff
CH15%85 mph38% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph33% whiff
CH19%86 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
85°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.003
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.20ERA
4.05FIP
8.33K/9
3.55BB/9
1.24WHIP
SD
3.10ERA
3.64FIP
9.87K/9
3.90BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.9 runs
39.0% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.