PHI vs DET prediction for July 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.3 - PHI 4.3. PHI is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
DET
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETPHI
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.3 — PHI 4.3
Actual
DET 10 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC34%78 mph38% whiff
FF24%92 mph14% whiff
SI20%92 mph9% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%93 mph16% whiff
SL24%85 mph29% whiff
KC19%78 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.9% EV
-213
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-29.2% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+23.0% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+19.8% EV
+176
F5_ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-130
ML HOME
-11.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.4 runs
47.4% win
DET F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET30.0%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI4 injured
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Dillon Dingler CDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 54.8%
-46.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.9 pts
Total
8.5
+23.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →