FINAL: TB 7 — SEA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 4.6 - SEA 3.2 (TB at 57.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
TB
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEATB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
TB
357
Projected
TB 4.6 — SEA 3.2
Actual
TB 7 — SEA 2
Pick Results
SEA @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.88u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF44%95 mph25% whiff
SL27%86 mph26% whiff
SI16%95 mph7% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI31%92 mph7% whiff
CH28%78 mph31% whiff
FC20%89 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
90°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-29.3% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-25.5% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-19.6% EV
-192
F5_ML HOME
+13.5% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-11.8% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-11.3% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.6 runs
28.3% win
TB F5
2.6 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB27.9%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 57.6%
-19.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.6 pts
Total
8.0
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →