Who is predicted to win NYY vs WSH on July 10, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, NYY is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is WSH 5.2 - NYY 5.8.

How did NYY vs WSH on July 10, 2026 end?

Final score: WSH 3 - NYY 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYY vs WSH Prediction & Picks — July 10, 2026

NYY vs WSH prediction for July 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.2 - NYY 5.8. NYY is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 11.0 total runs.

WSH

5.2

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.0

NYY

5.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

48.4%

51.6%

WSHNYY

+1.5

Run Line (WSH)

10.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,790 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYY

468

WSH

357

Projected

WSH 5.2 — NYY 5.8

Actual

WSH 3 — NYY 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Ryan Weathers L

NYY

FF29%96 mph16% whiff

CH23%86 mph35% whiff

ST20%81 mph43% whiff

Carson Palmquist L

WSH

FF48%90 mph9% whiff

ST31%74 mph33% whiff

FC13%82 mph24% whiff

Weather Impact

Nationals Park

83°F3 mph wind

HR: 1.016 Total: 1.007

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

NYY

3.36ERA

3.71FIP

8.80K/9

3.56BB/9

1.27WHIP

WSH

4.62ERA

4.93FIP

7.77K/9

4.06BB/9

1.38WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-29.7% EV

-125

F5_ML AWAY

-14.2% EV

-156

F5 OVER 5.5

+12.3% EV

-104

TOTAL UNDER 10.0

-11.9% EV

-105

ML AWAY

-10.9% EV

-159

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-9.7% EV

+104

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYY F5

3.3 runs

44.9% win

WSH F5

3.3 runs

44.2% win

F5 Total

6.6

NRFI

43.6%

YRFI

56.4%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.31

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.8

Over 0.5 HR

98%

Over 1.5 HR

89%

No HR

Ben Rice NYY30.0%

ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Carson Palmquist

Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%

ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Carson Palmquist | Platoon: 1.12x

James Wood WSH30.0%

ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Ryan Weathers

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Ryan Weathers

0.0 K projected

NYY | K/9: 0.0

Carson Palmquist

0.0 K projected

WSH | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYY5 injured

Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL

Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL

Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL

Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL

Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL

WSH8 injured

Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL

Cade Cavalli SPSUSPENSION

Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL

Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL

Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL

Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

NYY 51.6%

-29.7 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-29.7 pts

Total

10.0

+2.5 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

NYY vs WSH Prediction