FINAL: BAL 5 — KC 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 4.3 - KC 3.5 (BAL at 55.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
BAL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
KC
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALKC
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5BAL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
245
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.3 — KC 3.5
Actual
BAL 5 — KC 3
Pick Results
KC @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.96u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luinder Avila R
KC
FF27%96 mph16% whiff
SI26%96 mph17% whiff
SL23%88 mph32% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF41%94 mph18% whiff
FS20%85 mph22% whiff
SL14%84 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
80°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-41.9% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.8% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+29.3% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 5.5
+15.1% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+122
NRFI NRFI
+11.6% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.7 runs
32.2% win
BAL F5
2.5 runs
51.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Luinder Avila | Park: 1.03x
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Luinder Avila | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luinder Avila
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Vinnie Pasquantino 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Keegan Akin RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 55.1%
+1.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.7 pts
Total
10.5
+29.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →