BOS vs NYM prediction for July 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.8 - BOS 3.0. NYM is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
NYM
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.8 — BOS 3.0
Actual
NYM 2 — BOS 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC20%88 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
SI19%92 mph15% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI34%95 mph13% whiff
FF19%96 mph24% whiff
ST17%85 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.3% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-24.0% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.0% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-13.3% EV
+124
ML HOME
-6.4% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+3.7% EV
+142
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.4 runs
31.0% win
NYM F5
2.2 runs
51.3% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
13%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
A.J. Ewing NYM18.2%
ISO: 0.102 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM17.7%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BSUSPENSION
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.1%
+3.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.7 pts
Total
7.5
+15.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →