SEA vs BOS prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.8 - SEA 6.2. BOS is favored with a 51.9% win probability. BOS wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.0 total runs.
BOS
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSEA
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (3,544 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
BOS
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph31% whiff
Jedixson Paez R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH24%84 mph42% whiff
FF23%92 mph7% whiff
FC20%88 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
72°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.970 Total: 0.981
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.94ERA
4.04FIP
8.99K/9
3.52BB/9
1.32WHIP
BOS
3.24ERA
3.38FIP
9.55K/9
3.00BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.8 runs
48.8% win
BOS F5
3.3 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
46.1%
YRFI
53.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.33
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP15-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Eduardo Rivera P60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.