MIL vs CHC prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.9 - MIL 6.3. CHC is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 13.2 total runs.
CHC
6.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIL
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (3,544 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
468
CHC
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph28% whiff
SI23%92 mph11% whiff
FF23%93 mph22% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%93 mph13% whiff
CH26%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
92°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.038
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.18ERA
3.54FIP
9.19K/9
3.58BB/9
1.22WHIP
CHC
4.28ERA
4.68FIP
9.34K/9
4.06BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.4 runs
34.6% win
CHC F5
4.5 runs
55.0% win
F5 Total
7.9
NRFI
40.1%
YRFI
59.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.51
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL7 injured
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Pedro Ramirez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.