MIL vs CHC prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.2 - MIL 6.5. CHC is favored with a 53.2% win probability. CHC wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.7 total runs.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIL
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (3,693 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
568
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.2 — MIL 6.5
Actual
CHC 2 — MIL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph18% whiff
CH33%83 mph34% whiff
FC18%88 mph18% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS38%84 mph39% whiff
SL9%84 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
77°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.13ERA
3.50FIP
9.21K/9
3.52BB/9
1.20WHIP
CHC
4.38ERA
4.72FIP
9.29K/9
4.08BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.5 runs
43.4% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
43.6%
YRFI
56.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.35
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL6 injured
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Jacob Webb RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.