FINAL: HOU 6 — CWS 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 5.4 - CWS 5.0 (HOU at 56.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
HOU
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUCWS
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS L5HOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (3,693 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 5.4 — CWS 5.0
Actual
HOU 6 — CWS 2
Pick Results
HOU MLmlWIN+0.32u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%95 mph24% whiff
SL25%86 mph27% whiff
SI18%96 mph10% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph19% whiff
SI29%96 mph16% whiff
KC20%83 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
88°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.31ERA
4.54FIP
9.00K/9
4.62BB/9
1.38WHIP
HOU
3.50ERA
3.97FIP
9.27K/9
3.61BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-13.3% EV
-111
F5_ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+4.9% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.9% EV
-161
ML HOME
-4.9% EV
-154
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.3% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.9 runs
40.0% win
HOU F5
3.2 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
48.5%
YRFI
51.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS25.1%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Hunter Brown (3.60 ERA, 25.5% K) has a real 2.13 ERA edge over Luis Castillo (5.73 ERA, 19.4% K) supporting HOU as favorite, but the model's 10.48 total run projection versus market 8.5 (4.9% OVER edge) is unreliable given Daikin Park's retractable roof and wind blowing IN at -4.0 mph, both of which suppress rather than inflate scoring.
Key Factors
- Brown vs Castillo: 2.13 ERA gap (3.60 vs 5.73) is a clean ace-vs-back-end mismatch supporting HOU ML
- Brown's fastball/sinker mix (32% FF, 29% SI) generates elite 25.5% K rate
- Venue doubt: Daikin Park retractable roof likely closed for evening game, suppressing the HR/scoring environment
- Wind blowing IN at -4.0 mph tailwind directly contradicts the model's OVER lean
- Total market fully disabled per calibration (0/3 positive) — do not act on total edge regardless of size
Risk Factors
- 4.9% OVER edge sits in a calibration-disabled market; treat as noise, not signal
- HOU bullpen elite (3.5 ERA, closer 0.83 ERA) argues for LOWER total, contradicting model's total projection further
- CWS lineup could produce a spike inning against Brown's walk rate (13% BB), adding total variance either direction
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 56.3%
-4.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.3 pts
Total
8.5
+4.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.