TB vs TEX prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.3 - TB 3.3. TEX is favored with a 52.7% win probability. the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTB
N/A
Run Line
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (3,563 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
TEX
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
TBD R TBD
TB
TBD R TBD
TEX
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
84°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.52ERA
3.86FIP
8.85K/9
2.78BB/9
1.13WHIP
TEX
4.27ERA
4.40FIP
8.50K/9
3.72BB/9
1.32WHIP
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
40.1% win
TEX F5
1.8 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.9%
YRFI
36.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.