SF vs PIT prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.1 - SF 4.5. PIT is favored with a 51.3% win probability. PIT wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
PIT
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSF
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,544 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
346
PIT
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%92 mph9% whiff
CH24%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%84 mph19% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST16%84 mph28% whiff
CH13%89 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
94°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.068 Total: 1.035
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.73ERA
4.46FIP
7.51K/9
4.46BB/9
1.49WHIP
PIT
3.44ERA
3.60FIP
9.80K/9
4.22BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.6 runs
48.4% win
PIT F5
2.1 runs
35.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Gilbert CFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.