STL vs LAD prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.5 - STL 3.7. LAD is favored with a 51.0% win probability. LAD wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
LAD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSTL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,693 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
LAD
245
Projected
LAD 3.5 — STL 3.7
Actual
LAD 3 — STL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%94 mph17% whiff
SL24%85 mph30% whiff
CH16%83 mph35% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph21% whiff
CH26%87 mph47% whiff
SI19%97 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
70°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.36ERA
4.24FIP
8.08K/9
4.08BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAD
3.97ERA
3.91FIP
10.03K/9
4.17BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.0 runs
42.4% win
LAD F5
1.9 runs
38.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Shohei Ohtani DHDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.