MLB Baseball

STL vs LAD Prediction

September 3, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

STL vs LAD prediction for September 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.7 - STL 3.3. LAD is favored with a 63.8% win probability. the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.

LAD
4.7
Projected Score
VS O/U 8.0
STL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
63.8%
36.2%
LADSTL
N/A
Run Line
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,563 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

STL
135
LAD
357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

R TBD
STL
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS27% · 91
FF26% · 96
FC15% · 92
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%91 mph31% whiff
FF26%96 mph23% whiff
FC15%92 mph20% whiff

Weather Impact

Dodger Stadium
69°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
neutral

Bullpen Comparison

STL
4.47ERA
4.25FIP
8.08K/9
4.11BB/9
1.34WHIP
LAD
3.93ERA
3.93FIP
10.08K/9
4.20BB/9
1.27WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

STL F5
1.7 runs
29.9% win
LAD F5
2.7 runs
53.3% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

STL8 injured
Ramon Urias 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP60-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more

Model Edge & Sizing

🔒The model's edge against the market, and the stake it sizes for this matchup, are premium.Unlock

Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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