FINAL: LAA 2 — SEA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 3.6 - SEA 4.0 (SEA at 54.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
LAA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAASEA
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W5LAA W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (3,932 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.6 — SEA 4.0
Actual
LAA 2 — SEA 1
Pick Results
LAA MLmlWIN+0.74u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%87 mph35% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC38%90 mph22% whiff
FS21%85 mph32% whiff
ST21%81 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
74°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.036
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.12ERA
4.22FIP
8.63K/9
3.38BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAA
4.14ERA
4.10FIP
9.51K/9
3.88BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.2% EV
+107
F5_ML AWAY
-9.3% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-8.0% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-161
ML HOME
+6.1% EV
+147
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+4.7% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
46.8% win
LAA F5
1.9 runs
36.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.98x
Zach Neto LAA28.3%
ISO: 0.189 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.98x
Cal Raleigh SEA27.3%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Gilbert's elite control against Johnson's struggles points to a low-scoring game; UNDER 8.0 is the sharper angle versus the marginal LAA home-dog ML value.
Key Factors
- SP quality clearly favors SEA: Gilbert 4.02 ERA (B, 27.1% K rate, elite command) vs Johnson 5.53 ERA (C+, 17.9% K rate) — Gilbert should dominate.
- UNDER 8.0 shows 7.9% edge (54% model, 7.42 total) — supported directly by the SP quality gap.
- Home dog LAA at +148 (40.3% implied vs 46% model) is a secondary 7pp edge, but historical support profile is only YELLOW (a supportive track record, n=26) — not a green light for larger sizing.
- Weather is mild (73.4F, 7.3 mph wind out) — a minor over tilt that doesn't overcome the pitching-driven under case.
- F5 shows LAA only +2.2pp — sharps aren't excited about the home dog specifically, reinforcing that the total is the better play.
Risk Factors
- LAA is a well-below-.500 team; market may be correctly discounting them beyond just SP quality.
- Gilbert could dominate to the point of a LAA blowout loss, which supports UNDER but hurts the home-dog ML lean.
- historical support is YELLOW not GREEN on the ML side — sizing capped at 0.75 units.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.6%
+4.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+4.7 pts
Total
8.0
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.