SEA vs LAD prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.1 - SEA 3.4. LAD is favored with a 60.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
LAD
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSEA
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (3,064 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.1 — SEA 3.4
Actual
LAD 6 — SEA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%95 mph20% whiff
SI24%95 mph10% whiff
ST18%77 mph34% whiff
Eric Lauer L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph17% whiff
FC19%87 mph17% whiff
CH16%84 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.035
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.8 runs
29.3% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
56.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA6 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects SEA away 39.9% win prob vs market 34.0% implied — 9.0% edge on away ML. Eric Lauer (C grade, weak stuff D, 0.081, command B) is HEAVILY overpriced as home favorite (-232, 70% implied). Emerson Hancock (B- grade, 8.5 K/9, command B+) is the better pitcher. However, market at -232 suggests professional money is very bullish on LAD. Contrarian play but low confidence.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH (AWAY): Hancock (B-, 8.5 K/9, command B+, 0.519 grade) > Lauer (C, 0.308 grade, weak stuff D). Hancock is the better pitcher, but LAD lineup is strong (.798 OPS season, last checked).
- Model 39.9% SEA win prob vs market 34% = 5.9% edge ON AWAY. But combo historical support 'away ML' is RED (a supportive track record, n=111) — historically away ML underperforms.
- NRFI edge 10.1% (model 52.9%) suggests no early-game dominance by LAD, even at home.
- UNDER 9.5 edge 8.7% (model 59.7%) — Hancock's K-stuff should suppress runs vs LAD's lineup.
Risk Factors
- COMBO away ML historical support is RED (a supportive track record). This is a structural weakness — away ML bets underperform.
- Market at -232 LAD is EXTREME. Professional money is very confident in LAD. When market is this extreme, it's usually correct.
- LAD's lineup is strong and familiar with Hancock. SEA is travel-weary (road team).
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.