FINAL: STL 3 — SF 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 5.1 - SF 3.8 (STL at 67.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
STL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSF
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF W4STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 74.9% (3,932 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
STL
357
Projected
STL 5.1 — SF 3.8
Actual
STL 3 — SF 10
Pick Results
STL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Blade Tidwell R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST33%82 mph30% whiff
FF33%95 mph15% whiff
SI17%93 mph8% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%95 mph12% whiff
SL29%88 mph30% whiff
KC17%78 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
95°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.53ERA
4.60FIP
6.99K/9
4.36BB/9
1.48WHIP
STL
4.49ERA
4.25FIP
8.30K/9
4.19BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-16.0% EV
+124
ML AWAY
-12.6% EV
+145
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.9% EV
-147
ML HOME
+5.5% EV
-156
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+4.8% EV
+132
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-3.7% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.9 runs
29.9% win
STL F5
3.1 runs
55.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL28.9%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Blade Tidwell | Park: 0.98x
Alec Burleson STL24.9%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Blade Tidwell | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Blade Tidwell
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Fermin LFDAY-TO-DAY
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
STL home favorite is undervalued by the market (67.3% model vs 60.9% implied) despite near-equal starting pitching; the edge is pure home-field value, not a pitching mismatch, capping this at a lean.
Key Factors
- SP quality is close: Pallante 3.73 ERA (C+) vs Tidwell 5.21 ERA (C+) — Pallante has better command but neither is a standout arm.
- Market at -156 implies 60.9%, model shows STL at 67.3% — a 6.4pp gap driven mostly by home-field factors, not pitching.
- Park is neutral (1.0 mult); weather is hot (95.2F) with slight wind in (-2.3 mph), a mild under tilt.
- F5 edge shows STL only +1.3pp (62.5% model) — sharps aren't rushing in, suggesting the edge is a vanilla home-field value play, not an exploitable inefficiency.
- historical support profile is YELLOW (a supportive track record on home 5-10% edge), below GREEN threshold, supporting LEAN not BET sizing.
Risk Factors
- Pallante has below-average stuff (24.3 stuff score) and could get hit; SF capable of scoring.
- 6.4% edge is moderate — market is mostly efficient here.
- historical support YELLOW, not GREEN, caps confidence.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 67.3%
+4.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.8 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.