FINAL: TEX 1 — SF 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 3.5 - SF 3.2 (TEX at 52.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSF
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (3,130 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
TEX
245
Projected
TEX 3.5 — SF 3.2
Actual
TEX 1 — SF 5
Pick Results
SF @ TEX NRFInrfiWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph20% whiff
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC27%88 mph14% whiff
SI27%94 mph15% whiff
FS21%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
99°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.075 Total: 1.038
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.31ERA
4.34FIP
8.33K/9
4.54BB/9
1.43WHIP
TEX
4.30ERA
4.32FIP
8.22K/9
3.57BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-20.3% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.6% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+9.5% EV
-141
F5_ML AWAY
-7.9% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.3% EV
+168
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.2% EV
-204
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
38.2% win
TEX F5
1.8 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Rafael Devers SF29.1%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX26.4%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX25.2%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Cal Quantrill
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
F5 UNDER 4.5 at 9.5% edge (64.0% model prob) is the cleanest angle in extreme heat (98.8°F, Globe Life Field closed dome). Full-game UNDER 8.0 carries overconfident 11.6% edge (RED_EDGE_WARNING), but early-inning suppression from park/weather is sustainable.
Key Factors
- F5 UNDER 4.5 at 9.5% edge (64% prob) = clean first-5-inning angle; avoids full-game heat accumulation bias
- Globe Life Field closed dome at 98.8°F: park factor 1.075 HR, 1.038 total — but early innings less affected
- SP parity: Quantrill 4.15 vs Webb 4.24 ERA (0.09 gap = effectively even); no pitcher advantage
- Full-game UNDER 11.6% edge hits worst historical bucket (a supportive track record) — model overconfident on magnitude
Risk Factors
- Heat effect on offense unknown until game-time conditions confirmed; 98.8°F may inflate runs more than model projects
- Webb recent form (C+ grade, 4.24 ERA) unknown; if trending up, under edge vanishes
- Dome can magnify HR power; late-inning runs could spike, making F5 under the only safe play
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 52.9%
-4.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.3 pts
Total
8.0
+11.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.