FINAL: NYY 7 — STL 13. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 4.0 - STL 2.9 (NYY at 59.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
NYY
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.3% (3,130 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.0 — STL 2.9
Actual
NYY 7 — STL 13
Pick Results
STL @ NYY NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph24% whiff
SI17%91 mph9% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph30% whiff
FC26%95 mph19% whiff
SI19%98 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.030
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.25ERA
4.21FIP
8.12K/9
4.12BB/9
1.36WHIP
NYY
2.77ERA
3.73FIP
8.57K/9
3.51BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-18.3% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
+164
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+7.5% EV
-120
ML HOME
-5.4% EV
-204
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.0% EV
+102
ML AWAY
+4.4% EV
+186
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
28.2% win
NYY F5
2.4 runs
53.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 17.0% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY29.7%
ISO: 0.122 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL29.1%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Cam Schlittler is a legitimate ace (2.20 ERA, 29.9% K-rate, B+ command) vs McGreevy back-end starter (3.86 ERA); the pitcher mismatch justifies run suppression. UNDER 8.0 at 7.5% edge is appropriately calibrated and market-respected, offering value on the total rather than risky -204 ML.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch dominant: Schlittler 2.20 ERA (B+ grade) vs McGreevy 3.86 ERA (C+ grade) — ace-level advantage
- Schlittler K-rate 29.9% vs McGreevy 16.7% = strikeout suppression for STL
- Yankee Stadium wind out (+5.4 mph) and HR factor (1.055) slightly favor home, but Schlittler mitigates
- UNDER 8.0 historically mixed with 7.5% edge = appropriately calibrated, not overconfident
Risk Factors
- NYY -204 is a heavy favorite; short-rest road teams rarely cover at this price (historical 38% ATS on road favs >-200)
- Schlittler's actual recent form unknown; Bayesian ERA is model smoothed estimate
- STL may get weak early relief forcing NYY bullpen, which could extend game length beyond 8.0
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.6%
-5.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.0 pts
Total
8.0
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.