FINAL: COL 9 — TB 13. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 5.2 - TB 5.0 (COL at 51.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
COL
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
TB
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLTB
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W4COL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (3,130 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
COL
357
Projected
COL 5.2 — TB 5.0
Actual
COL 9 — TB 13
Pick Results
TB @ COL F5 UNDER 5.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH21%87 mph25% whiff
CU13%79 mph34% whiff
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%93 mph15% whiff
SL12%87 mph19% whiff
CH9%88 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
98°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.133 Total: 1.066
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.89ERA
4.07FIP
9.06K/9
3.22BB/9
1.19WHIP
COL
5.00ERA
4.35FIP
7.68K/9
3.79BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-20.4% EV
-167
F5_ML HOME
+16.6% EV
+132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.5% EV
-127
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-14.1% EV
-102
ML HOME
+11.6% EV
+158
ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.6 runs
40.2% win
COL F5
3.0 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Gabriel Hughes
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model-market conflict signal: COL underdog +158 gets 8.4% edge (42.0% model prob), but market prices TB -172 suggesting skepticism. Lorenzen's 7.06 ERA at Coors is genuinely problematic; Seymour's 4.72 ERA is solid. Coors park factor (1.18, highest on slate) creates variance that overwhelms other signals. UNDER 11.5 edge minimal (3.2%), and bullpen uncertainty makes this a clear SKIP.
Key Factors
- Extreme SP gap: Seymour 4.72 ERA vs Lorenzen 7.06 ERA = 2.34 runs/9IP for visiting team
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 (highest on slate) = +15-18% run inflation; model total 10.17 vs market 11.5 = only 1.33-run gap
- COL underdog ML edge 8.4% sits historically mixed with small sample — thin support
- UNDER 11.5 edge minimal 3.2% = market respecting Coors' historical over-friendliness
Risk Factors
- Coors variance (stadium inflation) can dwarf pitcher quality; even 7.06 ERA arm can allow runs due to thin air
- 97.5°F heat + low humidity (10%) + high altitude (4,266 ft density altitude) creates maximum offensive environment
- TB bullpen unknown; if they blow up early, COL homers in relief frame make underdog value evaporate
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 51.4%
+9.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+9.4 pts
Total
11.5
+3.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.