LAA vs BAL prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.5 - LAA 3.3. BAL is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALLAA
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
BAL
245
Projected
BAL 3.5 — LAA 3.3
Actual
BAL 3 — LAA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%96 mph11% whiff
CH23%83 mph33% whiff
CU13%81 mph15% whiff
Cade Povich L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%92 mph17% whiff
CU23%76 mph38% whiff
SL16%86 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.72ERA
4.33FIP
9.76K/9
4.48BB/9
1.30WHIP
BAL
4.41ERA
4.04FIP
8.58K/9
3.74BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.8 runs
37.1% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.7%
YRFI
41.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.