FINAL: NYY 2 — STL 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 3.6 - STL 2.9 (NYY at 57.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
NYY
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L4NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 3.6 — STL 2.9
Actual
NYY 2 — STL 0
Pick Results
STL @ NYY NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph12% whiff
ST17%82 mph24% whiff
SL17%88 mph21% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%96 mph16% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
ST21%81 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
77°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.41ERA
4.35FIP
8.02K/9
4.16BB/9
1.38WHIP
NYY
2.93ERA
3.84FIP
8.54K/9
3.49BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-21.1% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.0% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-196
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+11.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.6% EV
+104
ML AWAY
+5.9% EV
+176
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
34.6% win
NYY F5
2.0 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.329 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY25.7%
ISO: 0.125 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
NYY5 injured
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 57.2%
-8.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.6 pts
Total
8.5
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.