FINAL: CLE 2 — NYM 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.1 - NYM 2.8 (CLE at 53.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
CLE
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYM
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM W5CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.1 — NYM 2.8
Actual
CLE 2 — NYM 6
Pick Results
NYM @ CLE NRFInrfiWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%91 mph17% whiff
ST31%76 mph29% whiff
SI21%90 mph8% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%92 mph15% whiff
CU28%80 mph38% whiff
CH26%81 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.994
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.54ERA
4.35FIP
9.33K/9
4.05BB/9
1.39WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.82FIP
10.17K/9
3.84BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-19.7% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-11.9% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.3% EV
-119
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.4% EV
+149
NRFI NRFI
+6.8% EV
-130
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.4 runs
35.8% win
CLE F5
1.6 runs
40.5% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.3%
YRFI
32.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
16%
Chase DeLauter CLE28.7%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.97x
Rhys Hoskins CLE25.8%
ISO: 0.204 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM25.7%
ISO: 0.114 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Manaea
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 53.3%
-7.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
7.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.