FINAL: KC 8 — MIN 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 3.8 - MIN 3.6 (KC at 53.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
KC
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIN
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCMIN
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MINKC L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.8 — MIN 3.6
Actual
KC 8 — MIN 2
Pick Results
MIN @ KC NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph21% whiff
ST14%80 mph35% whiff
FS12%88 mph22% whiff
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI40%92 mph5% whiff
ST26%82 mph38% whiff
CH22%85 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
94°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.16ERA
3.90FIP
9.16K/9
3.89BB/9
1.36WHIP
KC
5.10ERA
5.30FIP
7.72K/9
4.50BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-25.6% EV
-159
F5_ML HOME
+22.8% EV
+126
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-20.5% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.8% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-15.4% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+9.8% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.7 runs
33.8% win
KC F5
2.2 runs
47.9% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
8%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC29.4%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Jeffers MIN29.1%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Randy Dobnak | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Randy Dobnak
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN7 injured
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
KC8 injured
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Luinder Avila SP15-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 53.0%
+5.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+5.1 pts
Total
9.5
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.