PIT vs MIL prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.0 - PIT 3.4. MIL is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PIT
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILPIT
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.0 — PIT 3.4
Actual
MIL 4 — PIT 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%98 mph22% whiff
SL34%90 mph33% whiff
CH13%93 mph34% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph21% whiff
CH32%82 mph32% whiff
FC20%87 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
86°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.020
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.98ERA
4.14FIP
9.33K/9
4.10BB/9
1.31WHIP
MIL
3.50ERA
3.66FIP
9.26K/9
3.80BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.8 runs
36.7% win
MIL F5
2.1 runs
45.0% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
MIL8 injured
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.