CWS vs BOS prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.1 - CWS 3.5. CWS is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
BOS
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CWS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCWS
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
245
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.1 — CWS 3.5
Actual
BOS 14 — CWS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Davis Martin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph21% whiff
SI18%93 mph7% whiff
CH14%90 mph12% whiff
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL31%87 mph28% whiff
FF24%94 mph11% whiff
CH22%84 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
79°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.026
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.80ERA
4.09FIP
9.17K/9
4.46BB/9
1.34WHIP
BOS
3.44ERA
3.68FIP
9.28K/9
3.18BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.9 runs
44.2% win
BOS F5
1.6 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.0%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
BOS8 injured
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.