WSH vs PHI prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.1 - WSH 3.2. PHI is favored with a 51.1% win probability. PHI wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
PHI
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
WSH
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIWSH
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
PHI
135
Projected
PHI 3.1 — WSH 3.2
Actual
PHI 5 — WSH 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carson Palmquist L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST42%74 mph30% whiff
SI33%91 mph8% whiff
FF15%91 mph19% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph46% whiff
FF24%97 mph13% whiff
CH19%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
84°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.013
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.43ERA
5.08FIP
8.89K/9
4.45BB/9
1.52WHIP
PHI
4.32ERA
3.78FIP
10.47K/9
3.48BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.7 runs
42.5% win
PHI F5
1.4 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
66.1%
YRFI
33.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Andres Chaparro 1BDAY-TO-DAY
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI5 injured
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.