FINAL: CIN 5 — OAK 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 4.4 - OAK 3.0 (CIN at 60.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
CIN
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5CIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 4.4 — OAK 3.0
Actual
CIN 5 — OAK 4
Pick Results
OAK @ CIN NRFInrfiWIN+0.43u
CIN F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%94 mph21% whiff
CH20%88 mph33% whiff
FC18%90 mph21% whiff
Brady Singer R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI48%91 mph14% whiff
SL30%82 mph32% whiff
ST12%82 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
88°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.19ERA
4.49FIP
9.64K/9
4.40BB/9
1.53WHIP
CIN
4.24ERA
5.02FIP
8.41K/9
5.00BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-20.5% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-17.7% EV
+105
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+10.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-10.0% EV
-179
ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
+121
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+4.9% EV
+148
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.5 runs
30.9% win
CIN F5
2.3 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.7%
YRFI
41.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Elly De La Cruz CIN28.7%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN28.7%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 1.08x
JJ Bleday CIN26.1%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN6 injured
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 60.6%
+4.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.9 pts
Total
9.0
+10.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.