MIA vs ATL prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 3.7 - MIA 4.2. MIA is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
ATL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLMIA
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 3.7 — MIA 4.2
Actual
ATL 4 — MIA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph22% whiff
CH17%87 mph22% whiff
SI14%93 mph20% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL37%85 mph38% whiff
FF30%94 mph11% whiff
SI11%93 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
82°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.16ERA
3.85FIP
9.68K/9
4.15BB/9
1.25WHIP
ATL
2.76ERA
3.25FIP
9.63K/9
2.99BB/9
1.06WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.5 runs
45.5% win
ATL F5
2.1 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.0%
YRFI
46.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Jakob Marsee CFDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.