STL vs ARI prediction for July 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.2 - STL 4.7. ARI is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
ARI
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISTL
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph20% whiff
ST19%86 mph33% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
FF24%93 mph11% whiff
SI19%93 mph9% whiff
CU19%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
98°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-26.3% EV
-182
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.4% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-9.9% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-8.1% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-7.1% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-0.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.6 runs
41.7% win
ARI F5
2.8 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=347)
Model projects 11.6 total runs with 15.2% edge vs market 9.0 on WEAK pitcher matchup (both C-level: Merrill Kelly C 0.287, 5.3 K% weak stuff vs Michael McGreevy C+ 0.383, 5.9 K% weak stuff). Edge is PURE weather/park: 98.1°F (HOTTEST DAY), retractable roof, Coors-adjacent thin air. Yet 15.2% edge in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) + weak pitchers = compression. LEAN at 0.5.
Key Factors
- WEAK PITCHER MATCHUP: Merrill Kelly (C 0.287, 5.3 K%, weak stuff 0.144) vs Michael McGreevy (C+ 0.383, 5.9 K%, weak stuff 0.189). Neither pitcher is quality. Both have low K% and weak stuff grades. Hitter-dominant environment.
- EXTREME HEAT: 98.1°F is HOTTEST DAY on slate. Thin air (2,954 ft density alt) + 3.4 mph wind (minimal) = extreme carry conditions. Weather multiplier 1.024 (above baseline).
- Retractable Roof Closed or Open?: Data doesn't specify. If closed, neutralizes heat advantage. If open, extreme carry.
- ARI Ballpark: Chase Field 1.06 PF (slight above neutral). Adds ~1% run boost.
- 15.2% Edge: YELLOW zone (50.1% WR). Edge not confirmed profitable.
Risk Factors
- YELLOW ZONE: 15.2% edge lands in 50.1% WR zone. No edge advantage.
- Roof Status Unknown: If retractable roof is closed (likely in 98°F heat), heat advantage is neutralized. Model may be overweighting open-air conditions.
- Weak Pitching Doesn't Mean High Scoring: Both pitchers weak (5.3/5.9 K%) means contact-heavy, but total runs could cluster (5-6 per team) rather than inflate.
YELLOW ZONEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 53.6%
-26.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-26.3 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →