STL vs TOR prediction for August 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.7 - STL 2.8. TOR is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.4 total runs.
TOR
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSTL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (3,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
TOR
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph36% whiff
CU16%80 mph35% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL21%86 mph17% whiff
CH17%84 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
69°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.26ERA
4.24FIP
8.11K/9
4.15BB/9
1.36WHIP
TOR
3.29ERA
3.40FIP
9.38K/9
3.43BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
40.9% win
TOR F5
1.5 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL3 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
TOR8 injured
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.