ARI vs CLE prediction for August 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.5 - ARI 4.2. CLE is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ARI
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEARI
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
CLE
346
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%92 mph11% whiff
CH27%88 mph29% whiff
FC14%91 mph11% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST27%88 mph43% whiff
FF25%97 mph26% whiff
CU21%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.57ERA
3.71FIP
7.96K/9
2.81BB/9
1.15WHIP
CLE
3.61ERA
3.80FIP
10.27K/9
3.64BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.3 runs
37.3% win
CLE F5
2.8 runs
48.2% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.