SF vs SD prediction for August 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.9 - SF 2.1. SD is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.0 total runs.
SD
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
2.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (3,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
024
SD
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph32% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
Kyle Hart L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST27%83 mph24% whiff
SI26%94 mph6% whiff
FS20%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.037
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.35ERA
4.35FIP
8.33K/9
4.55BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.18ERA
3.70FIP
9.55K/9
3.64BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.0 runs
28.9% win
SD F5
1.5 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
2.5
NRFI
74.0%
YRFI
26.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.46
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.