WSH vs ATL prediction for August 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.9 - WSH 4.1. ATL is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (3,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
ATL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%97 mph18% whiff
KC27%86 mph37% whiff
SI15%96 mph10% whiff
JR Ritchie R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU27%83 mph31% whiff
SI21%94 mph11% whiff
FF18%94 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
81°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.44ERA
5.20FIP
8.72K/9
4.76BB/9
1.54WHIP
ATL
2.84ERA
3.27FIP
9.52K/9
2.95BB/9
1.07WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.5 runs
42.1% win
ATL F5
2.5 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.