FINAL: ATL 2 — TB 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 4.3 - TB 4.6 (TB at 54.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
ATL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TB
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLTB
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TBATL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 4.3 — TB 4.6
Actual
ATL 2 — TB 7
Pick Results
TB MLmlWIN+0.56u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph33% whiff
CH23%91 mph38% whiff
SI21%95 mph10% whiff
Reynaldo López R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph14% whiff
SL31%84 mph33% whiff
CU11%74 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
88°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.020
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.60ERA
3.95FIP
8.80K/9
2.81BB/9
1.14WHIP
ATL
3.01ERA
3.44FIP
9.68K/9
3.14BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-122
ML AWAY
+9.7% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.1% EV
+171
F5 OVER 4.5
-7.6% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
-6.0% EV
-115
NRFI YRFI
-5.5% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.6 runs
44.3% win
ATL F5
2.4 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
50.2%
YRFI
49.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.269 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Griffin Jax | Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB29.9%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Reynaldo López
Drake Baldwin ATL26.4%
ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
TB away favorite shows a 9.7% ML edge, but the pitching matchup is essentially even (Griffin 4.13 ERA vs Lopez 3.93 ERA, slight edge to ATL) and away favorites carry a structurally weak track record (a supportive track record) — the edge appears driven by lineup quality assumptions rather than a clear pitching or situational advantage.
Key Factors
- Edge: 9.7% (51.7% model vs 47.2% market) — moderate, within the generally reliable 5-10% band
- Away-favorite archetype WR: 45.4% — structural weakness applies
- SP quality: Griffin (TB) 4.13 ERA vs Lopez (ATL) 3.93 ERA — essentially even, tiny edge to home pitcher
- Weather: Hot (88.1F), neutral wind — minor run impact only
Risk Factors
- Away-favorite structural weakness directly applies and is not offset by a clear pitching edge here (unlike CLE @ BAL)
- Model win prob (51.7%) vs historical support track record (45.4%) shows meaningful disconnect suggesting overconfidence
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 54.7%
-9.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.1 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.