TB vs TEX prediction for September 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.0 - TB 4.2. TB is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TEX
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTB
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,752 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.0 — TB 4.2
Actual
TEX 8 — TB 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH29%83 mph36% whiff
FF27%91 mph22% whiff
ST20%82 mph28% whiff
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%95 mph21% whiff
CU18%82 mph27% whiff
CH13%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
97°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.006
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.63ERA
3.93FIP
8.80K/9
2.81BB/9
1.15WHIP
TEX
4.31ERA
4.48FIP
8.47K/9
3.78BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.2 runs
41.4% win
TEX F5
2.2 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Baker RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.