FINAL: CHA 81 — ATL 128. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHA 114.3 - ATL 113.5 (CHA at 52.2% win probability). The spread is 2.5 and the total is 226.5.
CHA
114.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 226.5
ATL
113.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHAATL
+2.5
Spread (CHA)
226.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ATL W4CHA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (1,219 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
104114123
CHA
104114124
Projected
CHA 114.3 — ATL 113.5
Actual
CHA 81 — ATL 128
Pick Results
CHA +2.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Model Projection
MLSTRONG+118
CHA ML
+6.3%
Edge
52.2%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
83
Quality
Model gives CHA 52% win prob
Against the Spread
CHA ATS
+3.3 pts edge | 57% cover
STRONG
Over/Under
None 226.5
+1.3 pts edge | 48% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
ATL2 OUT
Jalen Johnson22.4PPG10.5RPG7.7APG
Dyson Daniels12.4PPG6.7RPG5.7APG
Nickeil Alexander-Walker21.5PPG3.5RPG3.6APG
Onyeka Okongwu14.7PPG7.4RPG3.4APG
CJ McCollum18.8PPG3.2RPG3.8APG
CHA4 OUT
Brandon Miller20.0PPG4.8RPG3.2APG
Grayson Allen16.8PPG3.0RPG3.8APG
Royce O'Neale9.7PPG4.7RPG2.5APG
Moussa Diabate8.4PPG8.7RPG2.0APG
Naz Reid14.0PPG6.5RPG2.5APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model has CHA 52.2% vs 45.9% implied (+6.3 raw) against unanimous sharp books, with four CHA guards OUT, so the gap is unexplained and needs caution.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHA 52.2%
+3.3 pts
Spread
+2.5
+3.3 pts
Total
226.5
+1.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NBA 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NBA 2026 season report card.