FINAL: UTA 120 — NOP 119. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UTA 120.4 - NOP 120.5 (NOP at 50.4% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 240.5.
UTA
120.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 240.5
NOP
120.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
UTANOP
-1.5
Spread (UTA)
240.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NOP L5UTA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (1,219 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
NOP
111120130
UTA
110120130
Projected
UTA 120.4 — NOP 120.5
Actual
UTA 120 — NOP 119
Pick Results
NOP MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Lineups
NOPHealthy
Trey Murphy III20.9PPG5.6RPG3.6APG
Julian Reese11.8PPG10.5RPG1.8APG
Saddiq Bey17.4PPG5.5RPG2.4APG
Zion Williamson21.1PPG5.5RPG3.2APG
Bennedict Mathurin17.2PPG5.3RPG2.4APG
UTA2 OUT
Lauri Markkanen26.2PPG7.0RPG2.2APG
Keyonte George23.5PPG3.6RPG6.1APG
Jaren Jackson Jr.19.1PPG5.6RPG2.0APG
Ace Bailey13.7PPG4.2RPG1.9APG
Darryn Peterson12.4PPG4.2RPG3.8APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model NOP 50.3% vs 48.8% implied (+1.5 raw) with UTA's Nurkic absence already priced in the -1.5 line.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NOP 50.4%
-1.6 pts
Spread
-1.5
-1.6 pts
Total
240.5
+0.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NBA 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NBA 2026 season report card.