SAS vs MIN prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 105.3 - SAS 103.0. MIN is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The spread is 5.5 and the total is 218.5.
MIN
105.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
SAS
103.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSAS
+5.5
Spread (MIN)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SAS W4MIN L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
SAS
93103113
MIN
95105115
Projected
MIN 105.3 — SAS 103.0
Actual
MIN 114 — SAS 109
Pick Results
Julian Champagnie OVER 6.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.65u
Keldon Johnson OVER 13.5 pranba_player_points_rebounds_assistsLOSS-1.50u
Rudy Gobert OVER 5.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.54u
Model Projection
MLELITE+172
MIN ML
+19.9%
Edge
56.7%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
90
Quality
Model gives MIN 57% win prob
Against the Spread
MIN ATS
+7.8 pts edge | 71% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 218.5
-10.2 pts edge | 69% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
SAS1 OUT
De'Aaron Fox18.6PPG3.8RPG6.2APG
Devin Vassell13.9PPG4.0RPG2.5APG
Stephon Castle16.7PPG5.3RPG7.4APG
Victor Wembanyama25.0PPG11.5RPG3.1APG
Julian Champagnie11.1PPG5.8RPG1.5APG
MIN1 OUT
Anthony Edwards28.8PPG5.0RPG3.7APG
Julius Randle21.1PPG6.7RPG5.0APG
Jaden McDaniels14.8PPG4.2RPG2.7APG
Rudy Gobert10.9PPG11.5RPG1.7APG
Ayo Dosunmu14.8PPG3.4RPG3.6APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 56.7%
+7.8 pts
Spread
+5.5
+7.8 pts
Total
218.5
-10.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →