Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Atlético Madrid 1.26 - Arsenal 1.52. Arsenal is favored with a 56.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Atlético Madrid
1.26
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Arsenal
1.52
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atlético MadridDrawArsenal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 80.4% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Arsenal
0.71.52.3
Atlético Madrid
0.51.32.0
Projected
Atlético Madrid 1.26 — Arsenal 1.52
Actual
Atlético Madrid 1 — Arsenal 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Madrid1.21
Arsenal1.52
14.5Shots14.2
5.1On Target5.5
5.5Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
76.7%
Over 2.5
28.8%
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
BTTS
49.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Atlético Madrid
3.25
Draw
3.42
Arsenal
2.34
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arsenal 56.2%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →