Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Atlético Madrid 1.26 - Arsenal 1.52. Arsenal is favored with a 56.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Atlético Madrid
1.26
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Arsenal
1.52
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atlético MadridDrawArsenal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Arsenal
0.71.52.3
Atlético Madrid
0.51.32.0
Projected
Atlético Madrid 1.26 — Arsenal 1.52
Actual
Atlético Madrid 1 — Arsenal 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Madrid1.21
Arsenal1.52
14.5Shots14.2
5.1On Target5.5
5.5Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
76.7%
Over 2.5
28.8%
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
BTTS
49.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
Match Context
UCLHigh
Atlético Madrid
3.25
Draw
3.42
Arsenal
2.34
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arsenal 56.2%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →