Marseille vs Nantes prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Nantes 1.27 - Marseille 1.74. Marseille is favored with a 56.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Nantes
1.27
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Marseille
1.74
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NantesDrawMarseille
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 80.4% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Marseille
1.01.72.5
Nantes
0.51.32.0
Projected
Nantes 1.27 — Marseille 1.74
Actual
Nantes 3 — Marseille 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.21
Marseille1.73
13.7Shots17.4
4.9On Target6.6
5.2Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
51.5%
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
48.5%
BTTS
32.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.7%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
Match Context
LIGCritical
Nantes
3.90
Draw
2.79
Marseille
2.30
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marseille 56.6%
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Total
3.0
+45.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →