Marseille vs Nantes prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Nantes 1.27 - Marseille 1.74. Marseille is favored with a 56.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Nantes
1.27
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Marseille
1.74
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NantesDrawMarseille
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Marseille
1.01.72.5
Nantes
0.51.32.0
Projected
Nantes 1.27 — Marseille 1.74
Actual
Nantes 3 — Marseille 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.21
Marseille1.73
13.7Shots17.4
4.9On Target6.6
5.2Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
51.5%
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
48.5%
BTTS
32.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.7%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
Match Context
LIGCritical
Nantes
3.90
Draw
2.79
Marseille
2.30
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marseille 56.6%
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Total
3.0
+45.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →