1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Union Berlin 1.37 - 1. FC Köln 1.47. 1. FC Köln is favored with a 53.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Union Berlin
1.37
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
1. FC Köln
1.47
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Union BerlinDraw1. FC Köln
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.0% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
1. FC Köln
0.71.52.2
Union Berlin
0.61.42.1
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin1.31
1. FC Köln1.44
14.7Shots15.5
5.3On Target5.7
5.5Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.7%
Over 1.5
77.9%
Over 2.5
49.5%
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 2.5
50.5%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Union Berlin
2.86
Draw
3.06
1. FC Köln
2.69
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
1. FC Köln 53.4%
--
Total
2.8
+8.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →