VfB Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects TSG Hoffenheim 1.62 - VfB Stuttgart 1.73. TSG Hoffenheim is favored with a 64.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
TSG Hoffenheim
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
VfB Stuttgart
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
TSG HoffenheimDrawVfB Stuttgart
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VfB Stuttgart
1.01.72.5
TSG Hoffenheim
0.81.62.4
Projected
TSG Hoffenheim 1.62 — VfB Stuttgart 1.73
Actual
TSG Hoffenheim 3 — VfB Stuttgart 3
Expected Goals (xG)
TSG Hoffenheim1.62
VfB Stuttgart1.71
17.1Shots17.7
6.3On Target6.6
5.8Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
84.9%
Over 2.5
68.4%
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 2.5
31.6%
BTTS
56.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.5%
3-1
5.1%
Match Context
BUNMedium
TSG Hoffenheim
1.52
Draw
4.26
VfB Stuttgart
6.36
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TSG Hoffenheim 64.2%
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Total
3.4
+71.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →