VfB Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects TSG Hoffenheim 1.62 - VfB Stuttgart 1.73. TSG Hoffenheim is favored with a 64.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
TSG Hoffenheim
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
VfB Stuttgart
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
TSG HoffenheimDrawVfB Stuttgart
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.1% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VfB Stuttgart
1.01.72.5
TSG Hoffenheim
0.81.62.4
Projected
TSG Hoffenheim 1.62 — VfB Stuttgart 1.73
Actual
TSG Hoffenheim 3 — VfB Stuttgart 3
Expected Goals (xG)
TSG Hoffenheim1.62
VfB Stuttgart1.71
17.1Shots17.7
6.3On Target6.6
5.8Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
84.9%
Over 2.5
68.4%
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 2.5
31.6%
BTTS
56.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.5%
3-1
5.1%
Match Context
BUNMedium
TSG Hoffenheim
1.52
Draw
4.26
VfB Stuttgart
6.36
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TSG Hoffenheim 64.2%
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Total
3.4
+71.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →