Mallorca vs Girona prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Girona 1.34 - Mallorca 1.57. Mallorca is favored with a 42.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Girona
1.34
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Mallorca
1.57
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
GironaDrawMallorca
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mallorca
0.81.62.3
Girona
0.61.32.1
Projected
Girona 1.34 — Mallorca 1.57
Actual
Girona 0 — Mallorca 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Girona1.34
Mallorca1.53
14.6Shots15.8
5.3On Target6.0
5.2Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
79.3%
Over 2.5
29.0%
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 2.5
71.0%
BTTS
31.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.3%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
0-0
8.2%
Match Context
LALCritical
Girona
2.06
Draw
3.51
Mallorca
3.87
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE38.1% WR (n=64)
Model claims 16.6% edge on Mallorca away, but xG gap is minimal (1.34 vs 1.53 = only +0.19 delta), away ML is in RED zone (38.1% WR), and market home odds (2.06, 48.5% implied) show market sees home value model misses. This is a model overfitting or data integrity issue.
Key Factors
- xG gap is MINIMAL: Girona 1.34 vs Mallorca 1.53 = only +0.19 xG/90 in Mallorca's favor. This does NOT justify 16.6% edge
- Model-market gap is HUGE: 16.6% (model 42.5% away vs market 25.8%) — largest gap of the day, with minimal xG support
- Away ML in RED zone: 38.1% WR (n=64), z=-2.0. Even with 16.6% edge, historically loses money
- Both teams are weak tier (Girona 0.81 attack, Mallorca 0.69 attack). This is a matchup between weak attacking sides, yet model favors away
- Market home odds (2.06) imply Girona has home value that model doesn't see — potential tactical/lineup factor not in xG
Risk Factors
- RED zone catastrophic: Away ML is 38.1% WR. This is our WORST soccer category. 16.6% edge does not overcome historical losses
- xG-edge mismatch: Model generating 16.6% edge with only 0.19 xG differential. This is suspicious — suggests overfitting or missing data
- Market is OPPOSITE on home: 48.5% implied home vs model 33.5% is a 15-point spread. Someone is very wrong; historically, market tends to be right on home probs
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGXG MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITYAWAY ML VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mallorca 42.4%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →