Mallorca vs Girona prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Girona 1.34 - Mallorca 1.57. Mallorca is favored with a 42.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Girona
1.34
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Mallorca
1.57
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
GironaDrawMallorca
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.9% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mallorca
0.81.62.3
Girona
0.61.32.1
Projected
Girona 1.34 — Mallorca 1.57
Actual
Girona 0 — Mallorca 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Girona1.34
Mallorca1.53
14.6Shots15.8
5.3On Target6.0
5.2Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
79.3%
Over 2.5
29.0%
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 2.5
71.0%
BTTS
31.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.3%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
0-0
8.2%
Match Context
LALCritical
Girona
2.06
Draw
3.51
Mallorca
3.87
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE38.1% WR (n=64)
Model claims 16.6% edge on Mallorca away, but xG gap is minimal (1.34 vs 1.53 = only +0.19 delta), away ML is in RED zone (38.1% WR), and market home odds (2.06, 48.5% implied) show market sees home value model misses. This is a model overfitting or data integrity issue.
Key Factors
- xG gap is MINIMAL: Girona 1.34 vs Mallorca 1.53 = only +0.19 xG/90 in Mallorca's favor. This does NOT justify 16.6% edge
- Model-market gap is HUGE: 16.6% (model 42.5% away vs market 25.8%) — largest gap of the day, with minimal xG support
- Away ML in RED zone: 38.1% WR (n=64), z=-2.0. Even with 16.6% edge, historically loses money
- Both teams are weak tier (Girona 0.81 attack, Mallorca 0.69 attack). This is a matchup between weak attacking sides, yet model favors away
- Market home odds (2.06) imply Girona has home value that model doesn't see — potential tactical/lineup factor not in xG
Risk Factors
- RED zone catastrophic: Away ML is 38.1% WR. This is our WORST soccer category. 16.6% edge does not overcome historical losses
- xG-edge mismatch: Model generating 16.6% edge with only 0.19 xG differential. This is suspicious — suggests overfitting or missing data
- Market is OPPOSITE on home: 48.5% implied home vs model 33.5% is a 15-point spread. Someone is very wrong; historically, market tends to be right on home probs
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGXG MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITYAWAY ML VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mallorca 42.4%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →