Juventus vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for November 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects AZ Alkmaar 1.08 - Juventus 1.67. Juventus is favored with a 50.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..
AZ Alkmaar
1.08
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Juventus
1.67
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AZ AlkmaarDrawJuventus
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.2% (1,947 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Juventus
0.91.72.4
AZ Alkmaar
0.31.11.9
Projected
AZ Alkmaar 1.08 — Juventus 1.67
Actual
AZ Alkmaar 1 — Juventus 2
Expected Goals (xG)
AZ Alkmaar1.08
Juventus1.67
14.3Shots15.3
5.1On Target5.8
5.4Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
92.9%
Over 1.5
76.7%
Over 2.5
51.8%
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 2.5
48.2%
BTTS
54.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
9.0%
0-0
7.2%
Match Context
UELHigh
AZ Alkmaar
3.97
Draw
3.80
Juventus
1.93
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.